China sets sights on Mars for crewed exploration
State-owned aerospace corporations have reaffirmed the nations long-term goal of a crewed Mars mission.
On September 23rd the China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology released a blog post on WeChat/Weixin emphasizing that aerospace workers should unite as one and move forward with courage in their work.
Toward the end of the blog post, the academy further emphasized efforts to innovate for the country’s major space goals. A notable excerpt from the blog post is as follows:
“Facing the new era and new journey, we must fully inherit the valuable experience accumulated from major engineering tasks such as deep space exploration and manned space flight, vigorously promote the spirit of aerospace exploration and other aerospace spirits, and scientifically plan the future development path of China's aerospace, especially the innovative development of major engineering tasks. We must focus on implementing major engineering tasks such as the space station application and development project, manned lunar exploration, and planetary exploration, and complete the demonstration of the manned Mars landing project.”
(If there are any problems with this translation please reach out and correct me).
Yes, China is setting its long-term sights on a crewed Mars landing. This is not the first time the country has announced plans for crewed missions to the red planet having announced an initial program timeline in 2021.
The program’s initial timeline was to launch missions in 2033, 2035, 2037, 2041, and beyond. It should be noted that crewed missions to Mars are not the country’s highest priority for human exploration given the various agreements signed for the International Lunar Research Station. Several major milestones will also need to be achieved.
I believe the most major limiting factor for a crewed Mars program will be the Long March 9 launch vehicle. This vehicle is still in development for a debut launch around 2033. Once operational the rocket is expected to carry up to 150,000 kilograms to low Earth orbit, or 44,000 kilograms to a trans-Mars trajectory.
Preparing for a Mars landing will require an immense effort in terms of pre-launched components. Human Mars missions will either see the crew spend a few days on the planet and a few years in deep space, or over a year on Mars and in deep space. Many consumables, like food and water, likely won’t be produced in the large quantities needed on the red planet and will either need to be brought along or sent in advance.
This would need several launches of the Long March 9 to send cargo in advance to Mars or to assemble a large crewed Mars spacecraft. A dozen launches of the less powerful Long March 10 could also launch cargo for the crewed Mars program, but it is somewhat unlikely due to being half the diameter of the Long March 9 and only lifting 70,000 kilograms to low Earth orbit. The Long March 10’s trans-Mars trajectory payload capacity is believed to be somewhere around 20,000 kilograms.
Nuclear propulsion is likely another key technology challenge that needs to be solved ahead of crewed Mars missions. A nuclear propulsion system will likely propel the various spacecraft carrying crew and cargo due to their high efficiency.
CGTN reported back in 2021 that the initial stages of the Mars program will require multiple transportation systems such as Earth-to-Mars shuttle rockets, Mars landing and ascent vehicles, and of course launch vehicles to leave Earth's atmosphere.
No designs for crewed Mars missions are currently confirmed, early development work and studies are believed to have started in the late 2010s. Mengzhou, the in-development crew capsule capable of housing up to seven taikonauts, may serve as a lifeboat during the missions.
Much of what is known about China’s crewed Mars program has come from the now-former head of the China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology, Wang Xiaojun (王小军). Wang Xiaojun was removed from the academy earlier this year for currently unknown reasons, likely related to corruption as he had also been working as a member of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference. It’s uncertain how much of the initial timelines were based on Wang’s efforts.
Based on China’s lunar exploration plans I’d rule out the 2030s for crewed Mars missions. The International Lunar Research Station and space-based solar power station construction combined will probably constrain the Long March 9’s schedule in the years following its debut. A Moon base, which will be built in the 2030s, is also a solid staging point for Mars missions.
The China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology’s blog post that emphasized workers’ efforts did not occur in a vacuum. Hours earlier Xi Jinping (习近平), President of the People’s Republic of China and General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, met with engineers, scientists, and workers who worked on the Chang’e 6 mission to congratulate them on their work.
Xi congratulated the Chang’e 6 teams for their efforts in collecting the first samples from the Moon’s far side, noting the many technological breakthroughs made to increase China’s scientific and technological self-reliance. Efforts for win-win collaboration during the mission were also praised.
President Xi’s speech from the meeting was released by CGTN with him stating:
“The exploration of space knows no bounds. I hope that the comrades in the aerospace sector will continue their efforts and seize the momentum, conducting meticulous scientific research on lunar samples, successfully carrying out major space projects such as deep space exploration, and promoting comprehensive development in space science, space technology, and space applications, and make new contributions to the goal of building a strong aerospace nation.”
Xi also urged aerospace workers and the Chang’e 6 team to keep an open mind to international cooperation in space. Wu Weiren (吴伟仁), Chief Designer of China's lunar exploration program, stated to CGTN hours after the meeting that China’s space program remains open to the international community and has no isolation or exclusion policy.
A video celebrating twenty years of China’s lunar exploration was also released in the following days.
