China's New Opening for Space Cooperation?
As America jeopardises its international agreements China could have an opening.
This article is one of China in Space’s few op-eds, reflecting the views and predictions of the author.
When I wrote an op-ed four months ago about the prospects of China-U.S. space cooperation I did not expect the second Trump administration to point a proverbial sledgehammer at its international agreements and national space efforts.
For those out of the loop, in Trump’s first month back in the White House his administration has threatened to annex entire allied nations and territories along with threatening Europe while espousing conspiracies against allies on the continent. As the U.S. does this internationally, back at home those with power over the nation’s space program have called for retiring the International Space Station early and canceling the world’s only operational Moon rocket.
If these threats somehow materialize and go ahead, Europe and other traditional allies of the U.S. will quickly find themselves lacking a major longstanding partner that they have relied on for almost everything since the end of the Second World War along with two major space projects they play a key part in.
Thankfully for those partners, the U.S. is no longer the world’s sole superpower with the rise of China in recent decades. So what does all this mean for China’s space efforts with potential new Western partners?
China & Europe
To begin with, Europe is currently in the awkward position of being nearly completely reliant on SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket for delivering the continent’s satellites into space. Efforts have been made to solve this so-called launcher crisis but flight rates are far below what is wanted by policy makers and executives. Alongside this prospective commercially operated launch vehicles are still a few years away from lifting off with relatively small payload capacities.
Meanwhile over in China, a fleet of reusable launch vehicles are on the cusp of launch, along with a fleet of reliable state-backed rockets. Neither state-backed nor privately-held launch companies need a new injection of customers but it would help generate and accelerate launch demands. These various rockets also have capabilities on par with or just below that of Falcon 9. The prestige of launching European satellites for the privately owned launch companies would also be significant too.
Meanwhile, European astronauts can only get to the International Space Station via U.S. vehicles, namely Crew Dragon. Of course, China cannot help European astronauts reach the International Space Station as they were banned from the project by the U.S. in the 2010s, but they could launch crews to a different destination. This destination would be the country’s Tiangong Space Station.
China has been open to sending international astronauts for years but none have yet flown to the station. However, the European Space Agency and China Manned Space Agency have trained alongside each other in Italy and China. As such this has already provided a basis of mutual experience for further cooperation.
Lastly, China and Europe already have a history of cooperation in space. The European Space Agency has previously provided two instruments for the Chang'e lunar mission, which returned the first lunar samples from the far side. Those instruments were Negative Ions on Lunar Surface (NILS) and INstrument for landing-Roving laser Retroreflector Investigations (INRRI). France, the space agency's second largest funding contributor, is also currently conducting a joint scientific mission with China called SVOM.
With all this, if a big enough push were given to Europe I can see the continent collaborating more with China as they are two large key economic forces wanting to maintain a semblance of the international order.
China & America
With the way the U.S. political system works, for now, no administration lasts forever, and with the damage the Trump administration is doing to all facets of life in the U.S. I don’t believe anyone predicts they can win again in 2028. Depending on how much of the U.S. space program is left, partnering with China may be the only way to rebuild in a timely and efficient fashion. Who knows how many critical scientific and climate satellites will be retired via a firey end by the current administration. And who knows what state the country will be in economically too.
What about the Moon?
At the present moment, both China and the U.S. are planning to return to the Moon with their own set of partners. China is going with the handful of members of the International Lunar Research Station while the U.S. is going back with Japan, the UAE, and Europe for now. But should the U.S. obliterate its current plans for going to the Moon and isolate its partners they could work with China instead.
Should Europe, Japan, and the UAE join China’s International Lunar Research Station project they can bring hardware they were originally developing in support of the U.S. with them. The European Space Agency is currently working on its Argonaut lunar cargo lander to deliver large amounts of hardware, Japan’s space agency is working on a pressurized rover for carrying astronauts across vast distances on the lunar surface, and the UAE is working on an airlock for a station in the Moon’s orbit. The first two partners’ hardware would be effectively readily compatible with China’s plans but the UAE’s airlock would require a small amount of redevelopment for a proposed ‘lunar Tiangong’ to switch to China’s docking standard, which is not majorly different from NASA’s.
How realistic is this?
Right now the conditions for traditional U.S. partners to ramp up cooperation with China are not yet fully in favor. Despite this, we are only one month into the second Trump administration and have forty-seven more to go at least as traditional partners of the U.S. reevaluate their position. With an increased focus on ‘America First’ policy in the administration until 2028, I believe there to be a considerable likelihood that old partners will work with China.