Racing Nobody: America’s misunderstanding of China's lunar ambitions?
The United States government has convinced itself that it must win this decades race to the Moon, but are they really racing anyone?
In the past two decades China has been steadily rising as a lunar exploration power, with the United States growing worried about a potential hit to its national pride should China land humans on the Moon’s surface before an American effort can return, after over fifty years of absence.
NASA’s current Administrator, Bill Nelson, has repeatedly said that the U.S. is in a race with China for a crewed lunar landing, with U.S. policymakers agreeing with this thinking. On the other side of this “race” is China, which doesn’t view it as such.
Both countries' respective missions are planned to occur before 2030, within as little as 18 months of each other. America’s Artemis III mission is planned for 2026, although a delay to around 2027 appears more likely. China’s first crewed lunar landing is officially scheduled for before 2030, but could occur as early as the second half of 2028.
So if China isn’t viewing the landings as a “race” why is the the U.S.? The answer is how the United States’ political system is structured, how NASA tries to expand its budget within the system, and ways NASA will shield its programs.
The United States will replace its top political leadership every four to eight years, often changing flagship programs with it. Those time spans are far too short to design, test, and perform programs like Artemis.
The agency is ultimately told by the U.S. government what to use its budget for, with limits for each program. As an example, in 2024 NASA was given 2.6 billion United States Dollars to spend on its Space Launch System and 2.195 billion to spend on Earth science. NASA's request for its Earth science budget fell 277.8 million short of the amount it hoped to spend in 2024.
In attempts to bring a larger budget to NASA, its leadership will act “hawkish” against America’s chosen adversaries as a way to shore up political goodwill. This does not always work, can deteriorate foreign relations, but is easy to do in terms of political maneuvering.
Accounting for inflation, NASA's budget has averaged approximately 25.832 billion United States Dollars with Bill Nelson as the agency’s Administrator (March 2021 to early 2025). Speaking with Ars Technica, Bill Nelson says the agency has lost 4.7 billion for various programs over the last two years, likely referring to NASA’s requested budgets for 2024 and 2025.
The rhetoric of a “race” to the Moon has helped NASA shield the Artemis program from cancellation, as some in the U.S. view major parts of the program as wasteful spending. However, most of the wasteful spending within Artemis has come from how the U.S. Congress wants the program organized, with contractors and component manufacturing in all parts of the country.
This rhetoric also helps NASA, along with the U.S. government, avoid criticism for its fairly lacking robotic lunar exploration program, which will be needed for a sustained presence. The “race” allows the agency’s leadership to point to a larger goal that needs immense resources as an argument for why other programs are not given the required resources, such as Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS).
So with the U.S. happy to amplify the idea of a “race”, why doesn't China too? China frankly doesn’t need a “race” to garner support for its crewed lunar program.
Support from the Central Government for the space program overall is strong due to a measurable economic impact while supporting other sectors of the economy. As such, if it can support China’s economy, it can support China’s development, and can support the people, which gets the government to support the program. This is why the two government-supported mega-constellation plans were kicked off.
Like the Tiangong Space Station does in low Earth orbit, a potential lunar base stands a good chance of being able to generate scientific and technological benefits. It is a major reason why the human landing program is underway, along with the International Lunar Research Station. So once again, if it can support China’s development, the Central Government will support the program.