China's Space Investments Avoids Conflict, USAF Study Finds
"[Space] is not an arena for countries to fight each other"
News media in the West commonly enjoys utilizing a narrative of a ”Chinese threat” in space, claiming that China's rapidly advancing space capabilities represent a direct challenge to Western space dominance and national security. Some reports intentionally misconstrue what scientists say, sensationalizing scientific reasoning, or presenting early tests as definitive weapons tests.
This tendency toward threat inflation is exemplified by a recent U.S. Air Force publication. On May 19th, the U.S. Air Force’s Air University’s China Aerospace Studies Institute published a paper titled "Deterring China's Use of Force in the Space Domain” regarding what they perceive as the growing capabilities of China’s space program. The paper reflects persistent U.S. concerns about maintaining strategic dominance rather than acknowledging the legitimate development and modernization efforts of the People’s Republic of China, which seeks parity and security in an increasingly militarized domain.
As such, the report introduces a so-called “deterrence scorecard” consisting of ten key factors that the authors claim influence the United States’ ability to deter China in space. Points on the scorecard include: military balance, offensive doctrines, ambiguity of intentions, use of uncrewed systems, China’s dissatisfaction with the international status quo (American unipolarity), space capability asymmetries, growing space dependence from China, the framing of space as a warfighting domain, weakness of international norms, and the availability of reassurances or inducements.
In a notable acknowledgment from a U.S. military perspective, the paper admits that China’s continued investment in space makes the country less likely and less willing to take part in a conflict in orbit. Growing dependence on space-based infrastructure, for communications, navigation, weather, and remote sensing, has created incentives for China to avoid escalatory actions that could endanger the space assets the nation has worked diligently to indigenously develop. As China’s space efforts become more deeply integrated into its economic and modernization plans, its posture is for safeguarding rather than threatening orbital infrastructure.
In short, the more China invests in space, the less likely conflict becomes.
Despite a U.S. belief of a “Chinese threat” in space, the country has repeatedly opposed placing weapons in space and urged stronger cooperation to peacefully use space, policies both in line with a no-first-use of nuclear weapons policy (a position only India also holds). Speaking on the nation’s space policy in 2024, Fu Cong (傅聪), China's Representative to the United Nations, stated:
“Outer space is not the private property of a few countries, but the common asset of all humankind,” — “It is not an arena for countries to fight each other, but a new frontier for mutually beneficial cooperation.”
Dual-Use Technology
Across news media, a common talking point used to claim China is militarizing space is that of dual-use technologies. Critics point to the navigation system BeiDou, new quantum spacecraft, or advanced imaging satellites as evidence of military intentions. However, this argument ignores that virtually all space technology has dual-use potential regardless of which country develops it.
However, America is taking a rather active role in the dual-use of space. SpaceX’s Starlink is utilized to hide and is being integrated into U.S. military intelligence and communications networks. The Pentagon is also desiring to integrate various commercial spacecraft into its networks. And the Starship-Super Heavy launch vehicle is being eyed as a troop and cargo transport, while rocket upper-stages could become “space interceptors” to meet future military demands. (This is just the last 18 months, while science missions are actively defunded and cancelled, and the U.S. Space Force gets a 40 billion budget.)
Alongside this, the previously dominant U.S. launch provider United Launch Alliance was majorly focused on serving American national security, with launches of dozens of military spacecraft and a handful of scientific satellites, until Amazon chose to buy dozens of launches from the company for its internet mega-constellation.
Singling out China's dual-use capabilities while ignoring equivalent technologies from other countries highlights that this talking point reflects geopolitical competition rather than genuine concerns about space militarization.
Beyond Earth Orbit
Lastly, citing events in the South China Sea, those in the Western military apparatus have suggested that parts of the Moon could become politically contested regions. Even former NASA Administrator Bill Nelson (2021-2025) participates in this fearmongering in attempts to gain more NASA funding for a so-called new “Moon race”.
This ignores that China argues its South China Sea claims are based on centuries of historical usage and administration, dating back to the Han Dynasty (202 BCE–220 CE). Chinese fishermen and naval forces have historically resided on and around the Paracel and Spratly Islands, as shown in ancient maps and documents. Archival evidence from Europe, dated from the 1970s, also supports this. No such claims exist for the Moon in contrast.
There is, of course, the argument of exclusion zones to protect crews exploring the surface or historic mission sites. This may happen, but the only country to do so so far has been the U.S., declaring that no one approach the Apollo landing sites and enshrining such in American law.
Put simply, China won’t claim the Moon unless the country claims the entire Milky Way Galaxy through leaning on literature like The Cowherd and the Weaver Girl (牛郎织女), and that claim would be quite weak.